Here’s the thing: a 3‑0 lead in a best‑of‑seven series feels like a straight‑up ticket to the World Series, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are polishing that ticket with a home‑field advantage that feels almost cinematic. On Friday, October 17, 2025, at 8:38 p.m. ET, the Dodgers vs. Brewers Game 4 will kick off at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, and the betting world is already buzzing.
Series Overview and What’s at Stake
After a dominant 3‑1 win in Game 3, the Dodgers (93‑69) sit on a three‑game lead over the top‑seed Milwaukee Brewers (97‑65). The NLCS, part of the National League Championship SeriesDodger Stadium, hasn’t seen a comeback from a 0‑3 hole in MLB history, so the pressure on the Brewers is palpable.
For Milwaukee, it’s a do‑or‑die night. A win forces a Game 5 back at American Family Field on October 19, keeping alive a shot at the World Series – the club’s first since 1982. For Los Angeles, a sweep means a quick march to the 2025 World Series, where they’ll defend the title they captured last season.
Pitching Matchup: Ohtani vs. Quintana
All eyes are on Shohei Ohtani, starting pitcher for the Dodgers. The 31‑year‑old Japanese two‑way star posted a 2.87 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 47 regular‑season innings, but his numbers shrink dramatically in the lids of Dodger Stadium – a 1.71 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. In the 2025 postseason he’s allowed just one run in 7.2 innings, a 0.94 ERA that’s bonkers even by his standards.
Opposite him, the Brewers will likely lean on Jose Quintana, veteran left‑hander. The 36‑year‑old Colombian has been solid all year (4.12 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) but has struggled against elite right‑handed power when the stakes are this high. His last postseason start gave up three runs in five innings, and Milwaukee’s offense has produced just three runs across the series, so his margin for error is razor‑thin.
Offensive Dynamics: Dodgers’ Firepower vs. Brewers’ Drought
The Dodgers’ lineup shines at home. They rank second in isolated power (ISO) at Dodger Stadium and boast a weighted on‑base average (wOBA) that sits in the top three league‑wide against left‑handed pitching. Teoscar Hernández (Dominican, 32) and Tommy Edman (American, 29) have been the offensive catalysts, combining for a .352 batting average and 12 RBIs in the postseason.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, looks like a car with the brakes on. Star outfielder Christian Yelich (American, 33) is mired in a slump, catcher William Contreras (Colombian, 27) has struck out three times in his last five plate appearances, and rookie Jackson Chourio (Venezuelan, 21) is battling a hamstring issue that limits his swing speed. The Brewers have managed only three runs total in the NLCS, a stark contrast to the 18 they piled up during the regular‑season sweep of the Dodgers.
Betting Lines, Market Reaction, and Prop Picks
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dodgers sit at -206 on the moneyline, meaning you’d have to risk $206 to win $100. The run line is -1.5 at +110, while the Brewers are +165 moneyline and +1.5 run line at -130. The over/under hovers around 7.5 runs, with Action Network listing the total at 8 runs (over -105, under -115).
Prop enthusiasts have a few juicy options. The Ohtani under 6.5 strikeouts prop is priced favorably – Ohtani’s strikeout rate at Dodger Stadium sits at 8.1 K/9, so the under isn’t far‑fetched. Another angle: Teoscar Hernández to record 2+ total bases carries +140 odds, reflecting his recent hot streak.
SportsLine’s Monte‑Carlo simulation ran 10,000 iterations, projecting a 71% chance the Dodgers close out the series. The consensus among analysts is that the Brewers need a miracle – a dominant Quintana outing paired with a sudden offensive surge.
What’s Next: Path to the World Series
If the Dodgers win, they’ll head to the World Series for the third time in five years, looking to repeat as champions. Their rotation, now boasting Ohtani, Tyler Anderson, and a bullpen that posted a combined 1.54 ERA in the postseason, appears poised to dominate any National League opponent.
Should the Brewers pull off the upset, they’ll force a Game 5 in Milwaukee, renewing hopes of a historic comeback. No team has ever overturned a 0‑3 deficit, but baseball loves a good underdog story, and the narrative would be irresistible for fans and bettors alike.
Broadcast Info and Final Thoughts
The game will be televised nationally on truTV, with pre‑game coverage starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. For anyone watching from home, the excitement will be palpable – the thundering roar of Dodger fans, the smell of fresh‑cut grass, and the knowledge that every pitch could be a season‑defining moment.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this game affect the Brewers' chances of reaching the World Series?
A loss eliminates Milwaukee, ending their first World Series run since 1982. A win forces a Game 5, keeping alive a historic comeback attempt that no MLB team has yet achieved.
What are the key factors that give the Dodgers an edge in Game 4?
Home‑field advantage, a dominant postseason staff ERA (1.54), and Shohei Ohtani’s proven success at Dodger Stadium (1.71 ERA) combine with a powerful lineup that ranks top‑three in wOBA and ISO against left‑handed pitchers.
Why are betting markets favoring the Dodgers so heavily?
The odds reflect the statistical reality: a 71% model‑based probability, a 3‑0 series lead, superior pitching, and a faltering Brewers offense that has scored only three runs in the NLCS.
Which prop bets are considered the safest for this matchup?
The Ohtani under 6.5 strikeouts and the Hernández 2+ total bases props have the most favorable odds, given Ohtani’s historic low strikeout rate at Dodger Stadium and Hernández’s recent streak of multi‑base games.
What historical precedents exist for a team coming back from a 0‑3 deficit?
None in MLB history. The closest example is the 2004 ALCS, where the Red Sox erased a 0‑3 deficit, but that’s a rare outlier. The Brewers would be making history if they win Game 4.
